Prediction markets and event contract intelligence
Prediction Markets: Explore Events, Understand Probabilities & Compare Platforms
Discover how prediction markets work, examine event-based trading, understand the risks behind market-implied probabilities, and compare established platforms through independent research.
Explore prediction market categories
The categories below are ways venues describe events. A category on this page is not a live board, and it is not available on every platform. No contract prices are shown, because this page does not carry a live feed.
Politics and elections
People trade claims about elections, legislation and other political outcomes, where a venue is allowed to list them.
A yes/no contract, or a share that pays if that outcome is the official result.
The resolution source is the point of the contract. A news headline is not the same as the rule. Political contracts are often the most restricted category.
Economics
Inflation, unemployment, interest rates, GDP and other published economic outcomes.
Usually a threshold, such as whether a print is above a number, or whether a decision matches a stated choice.
The official release, and the rule for revisions, decide the payout. A later revision can matter if the contract says so.
Financial markets
Milestones in listed markets, indicator levels, or other events a venue is permitted to list. This is not a share, an option or a future.
An event contract on a number or a date. It does not deliver the underlying asset.
The event rule and the venue’s permission decide what can be listed. A brokerage screen may only show contracts from specific exchanges.
Sports
Outcomes of sporting events, only where that venue is permitted to offer them.
A yes/no on a result, a score line or a similar stated fact.
Sports contracts are often treated under gambling rules or under a narrow derivatives permission. A state or province can block them even when other contracts remain open.
Weather and climate
Temperature, rainfall, storms and other measurements with a stated station or dataset.
A threshold on a published measurement.
The station, the time window and the dataset are the contract. A nearby reading does not settle it.
Entertainment and culture
Awards, releases and other cultural events a venue chooses to list.
A yes/no on a stated result, such as a winner or a release happening by a date.
Ambiguous wording is common here. The rule has to say who counts as the winner and what happens if the event is cancelled.
The contract is the product
Every useful question starts with the resolution source. Who decides that a candidate won, that a rate decision matched the wording, or that a data print was revised? Ambiguous wording is how traders argue about the payout after the event. Read the rule before reading the chart.
Yes and no
Many contracts are a claim that pays a fixed amount if the event happens and nothing if it does not. The price is what someone will pay for that claim. It is not a share in a company.
Price and payout
If the payout is 1, a price of 0.40 costs 0.40 per contract before fees. If the event happens, the contract pays 1. If it does not, it pays 0. Other venues use different units. The rule states the unit.
Resolution and settlement
The contract names the source that settles it. A dispute, a delay, a voiding rule or a cancelled event is part of that text. Liquidity is whether someone will trade with you before then, and the spread is part of the cost.
Illustrative contract payoff
Type your own numbers. This treats one contract as paying the maximum you enter if the side you chose wins, and zero if it loses. It uses the entry price as the amount paid per contract. It does not know a bid-ask spread, an early sale, or a venue where the yes price and the no price do not add up to the payout. It is not a live quote.
Enter an entry price, a contract count and a maximum payout. Leave fees blank to treat them as zero.
Understanding market-implied probabilities
If a contract pays one unit when an event occurs and zero otherwise, a frictionless price can be read as a probability. A yes price near 0.70 is often described as about 70% before the qualifications below. Real markets have spreads, fees, position limits and traders who are not trying to be calibrated. A price can also be a hedge against a risk held somewhere else. WiT Markets does not publish live probabilities, because an unsourced number would look more precise than it is.
Market-implied probability
This is a reading of the traded price, after you account for the payout, the spread and the fees. It describes what the market is charging for the claim. It moves when orders arrive. It is not a scientific calibration, and it is not a promise that the event will happen 70 times out of 100.
Forecast probability
This is someone’s stated chance, from a model, a forecaster or a written analysis. It can disagree with the traded price. Neither number is the true chance. A forecast can ignore the contract’s wording, and a price can ignore information the forecaster used.
Spread and fees
The price you can buy and the price you can sell are not the same. Fees sit on top. A midpoint of 0.70 is not the cost of entering or leaving.
Liquidity and depth
A small order can move a thin contract. The last price may be old. Depth is how much size is available near that price.
Wording and disputes
If the resolution source is unclear, the price is a trade on the wording as well as on the event. Manipulation and one-sided positioning can hold a thin price away from a careful view.
Legality, access and loss
Some event contracts in the United States have been offered as regulated derivatives. Others sit in a contested space between gambling law and commodity or securities law, and the answer has changed with the venue. The UK and Australia have gambling and financial-promotion rules that can capture event betting even when the interface looks like a trading screen. Finland’s rules on gambling and on investment products are a separate analysis. A brokerage interface is not the exchange. A blockchain market is not a CFTC-regulated exchange unless that venue’s own disclosure says so. Political and sports contracts are often restricted even when another category is open.
What you can lose
The amount committed can go to zero. A wide spread, a fee and a voided or disputed resolution can change the result you expected. Settlement can be delayed. A contract can be cancelled under its own rules.
Who you face
An exchange, a broker and a smart contract are different risks. A firm can fail. A wallet, a stablecoin and a network fee are extra risks on a blockchain venue. They are not the same as a cleared futures account.
What this page will not do
Event contracts can expire at zero. Rules can resolve in a way you did not expect. Accessing an offshore venue to avoid local law is not a technique this site will explain.
Before trading an event contract
- What exact event determines the outcome?
- What is the authoritative resolution source?
- What are the settlement and cancellation rules?
- What is the maximum possible loss?
- How liquid is the contract?
- What are the total transaction costs?
- Is the service legally available to you?
- What entity operates the market?
Compare global prediction market platforms
Named platform comparison is withheld while legal review is open. The education on this page stands on its own.
Questions
What are prediction markets?
They are markets in which people trade a claim about a future event. The contract, not a share in a company, is the product. A traded price can be read as a probability only when the payout, the wording and the market quality support that reading.
How do yes and no event contracts work?
A common contract pays a fixed amount if the stated event happens and nothing if it does not. You pay a price for the side you choose. If that side wins, you receive the payout. If it loses, the contract pays zero. Other venues use different units, so the rule matters.
Does a 70% contract price mean an event has a 70% chance?
It means traders have pushed that contract to that price. A frictionless contract that pays 1 or 0 can be read as 70% before spreads and fees. Thin markets, unclear rules and traders who are hedging can hold the price away from a careful probability.
Are prediction markets legal?
It depends on the country, the contract and the operator. Some US event contracts have been offered as regulated derivatives. Other activity sits between gambling law and financial regulation, and the answer has changed with the venue. A screen that looks like a trading app does not decide the legal category.
Which countries allow access to prediction markets?
This research does not mark any country as confirmed eligible. Some offerings publish a blocked list, a US-only rule, or a conditional note for a named entity. A missing confirmation is not permission, and a general brokerage account is not permission to trade event contracts.
What is the difference between prediction markets and betting?
Both can pay on an event. The legal category, the operator and the customer protections are not the same. A cleared event contract, a gambling product and a play-money forecasting site should not be described as one product.
What is the difference between a prediction exchange and a brokerage interface?
The exchange lists and clears the contract. A brokerage interface routes a customer to contracts listed elsewhere. The broker is not the exchange, and eligibility at the broker is not eligibility at every venue it can reach.
Can users lose their entire stake?
Yes. If the chosen side loses, a contract that pays zero is worth zero. Fees can add to that loss. A short-dated or thin contract can also be costly to exit before resolution.
How are event contracts settled?
The contract names the fact that settles it and the source used to read that fact. Settlement can be cash in a brokerage account or, on some blockchain venues, a crypto asset. The rule also covers delay, cancellation and voiding.
What happens when an event outcome is disputed?
The contract’s dispute process applies. Traders can disagree about whether the wording was met. Until that process ends, the payout can be delayed or changed. The last traded price is not a ruling.
Are blockchain-based prediction markets different from regulated exchanges?
Yes. A blockchain venue can involve a wallet, a stablecoin, network fees and smart-contract risk. That is not the same legal or operational structure as a CFTC-regulated exchange, unless the specific venue’s disclosure says otherwise.
What fees should users check before trading?
Trading fees, exchange or venue fees, funding and withdrawal charges, and network or conversion costs where the venue uses a crypto asset. A headline commission is not the full cost, and different venues do not use comparable units.
How do prediction markets differ from stock, options or futures trading?
A share is ownership. An option is a right over an asset. A future is a contract to buy or sell, or to cash-settle, an underlying. An event contract pays on a stated fact. The margin, the expiry and the resolution source are not interchangeable.
What should users compare when selecting a platform?
The operator, the contract rules, the categories actually listed, the fee note, the funding method, and whether the research shows a conditional, excluded or unverified status for their country. A longer feature list is not a recommendation.
Sources and method
The CFTC, the SEC, the FCA and ASIC are public references for how event contracts, derivatives and financial promotions are discussed. They do not supervise every venue on the same terms. Provider pages were read for the comparison and are not repeated as a second public database. The comparison order is alphabetical. Commercial relationships do not decide inclusion or wording. The editorial review date on this page is the research date for the comparison extract, 16 October 2026. It is not a claim that every fee or country rule was rechecked today.
Sources and review
Written by: WiT Markets Editorial. Writes and structures WiT Markets pages. Separates a sourced fact from a cell that is Not confirmed.
Review: Editorially reviewed. This is not a qualified specialist review and it is not a legal sign-off.
Last reviewed: . Next review due . The date is an editorial pass. It is not a live check of every third-party fee.
Regulatory and official sources
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — checked 13 October 2026
- Financial Conduct Authority — checked 13 October 2026
- Australian Securities and Investments Commission — checked 13 October 2026
- U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission — checked 14 October 2026
Methodology. Editorial policy. Corrections. Report an error.
Methodology · Editorial policy · Risk disclosure · Corrections