Global macroeconomic research

Macro & Economics

Understanding the forces shaping growth, inflation, interest rates and global financial markets.

Independent macroeconomic research covering monetary policy, inflation, employment, economic growth, fiscal policy and the transmission of economic developments across bonds, currencies, equities and commodities. Figures appear only when a named official document has been read. There is no live macro ticker.

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Written by WiT Markets EditorialReview Editorially reviewedLast reviewed

Notes whose sources were opened for this edition. Older notes stay in the archive with their original dates.

Diagram for The global growth paradox: resilience that the IMF says is under strain

Global economyMacro analysis

The global growth paradox: resilience that the IMF says is under strain

The October 2026 World Economic Outlook describes an economy that has kept growing through geopolitical disruption, and a set of margins the Fund says are thinning. The figures below are the IMF's projections, not outcomes that have already been measured for the full year.

WiT Markets Editorial2 min read

Read the note

Research themes

Counts are published notes carrying that tag. A theme with no note would say so.

Macroeconomics by region

A region card lists notes tagged for that region. It does not invent a GDP, inflation or policy-rate snapshot.

Macro to markets

Conditional relationships. A market reaction also depends on what was already expected, on policy, and on whatever else is happening at the same time.

Illustrative pathways. None of these rows is a forecast or a guaranteed market outcome.
DevelopmentWhat may followWhat can break the story
Inflation surprisePolicy expectations can shift if the surprise is broad and expected to last. Nominal yields, real yields, equity multiples and the currency can all move, and they need not move together.A one-month energy print can fade. The surprise may already have been in the price.
Growth slowdownWeaker activity can pressure earnings and widen credit spreads. Government bonds can gain if investors prefer that claim. Policy easing is a later decision, not an automatic one.Nominal incomes can hold up. One region can slow while another does not.
Fiscal expansionMore bond supply can raise the term premium. It can also support growth and, if the economy is tight, inflation. The mix decides whether yields rise with stronger activity or with a financing worry.Demand for the bonds, the currency of issue and regulation can offset the extra supply.
Energy shockCosts and a named consumer-price index can rise. Purchasing power can fall. Central banks may tighten, wait, or do something in between. Producers and users of the fuel can move in opposite directions.Inventories, other supply and fiscal support can absorb the first round, as the OECD described for early 2026.

Higher inflation does not always mean lower equity prices. Growth, margins, the policy response and the starting valuation can dominate the discount-rate effect. The longer treatment of an energy shock is the transmission note.

Official projections on the record

These are the institutions’ published paths, checked on 19 October 2026. They are not historical outcomes and they are not a WiT Markets forecast.

IMF October 2026 World Economic Outlook, information through 1 October 2026. OECD interim outlook, 23 September 2026. ECB staff baseline published 10 September 2026.
Series202620272028What it is
IMF world growth3.1%3.4%—Projection, not an outcome
IMF world headline inflation4.7%4.1%—Projection, not an outcome
OECD world GDP2.9%3.0%—A different institution’s projection
ECB euro area headline inflation3.0%2.5%2.1%Staff baseline
ECB euro area growth0.9%1.4%1.5%Staff baseline

The bars repeat the IMF rows so the gap between 3.1 and 4.7 is visible. They are not a history. The IMF and OECD world-growth figures differ. They are not averaged.

Research series

A series is a tag on notes that exist. Empty series are not given their own page.

  • Understanding inflation

    Indexes, exclusions and why two official rates can differ.

    2 notes

    Open in the archive

  • Central bank policy watch

    Decisions taken from a statement that was opened and checked.

    2 notes

    Open in the archive

  • Reading the yield curve

    Policy rates, long yields and the limits of a recession slogan.

    2 notes

    Open in the archive

  • Global growth monitor

    IMF and OECD projections, kept as separate institutional paths.

    2 notes

    Open in the archive

  • Fiscal policy and debt

    Supply, refinancing and the cost of sovereign borrowing.

    1 note

    Open in the archive

  • Macro to markets

    Conditional paths from an economic change to asset prices.

    1 note

    Open in the archive

Editorial queue

These subjects were not published. A decision page or a country table was not opened, so the article would have had to invent the figure.

  • The Bank of England's policy dilemma

    No Bank of England decision or Monetary Policy Report was opened for this edition, so no UK policy rate, services inflation print or gilt yield is stated.

  • Japan's interest-rate normalisation

    No Bank of Japan statement was opened for this edition, so no policy rate, Japanese government bond yield or yen level is stated.

  • China's growth model

    No National Bureau of Statistics release or IMF country table was opened for a China figure, so consumption, property and credit are not given numbers.

Research archive

Search titles, summaries and tags. Dates are the dates these notes were published, not the dates of the official reports they cite.

  • Diagram for Inflation is more than one published series

    Macro & EconomicsEconomic explainer

    Inflation is more than one published series

    Why consumer prices, producer prices and inflation expectations answer different questions, and why a single print is not a regime.

    WiT Markets Editorial1 min read

    Read note

Routes that already exist. A calculator uses numbers you type. It does not forecast the economy.

Sources and editorial method

How to use this section

Start with the institution that publishes the series and the date of the document. A projection in an IMF, OECD or central-bank report is labelled as a projection. A policy rate in a decision statement is a decision, not a bond yield. Mechanism notes that do not have a fresh release do not invent the missing print. IMF, OECD, central-bank and BIS documents are the public maps this desk prefers to a broker’s recap of yesterday.

Growth, jobs and the government

Gross domestic product is a national-accounts concept with a revision schedule. Productivity relates output to an input such as hours or workers. Business investment is one component, not the whole. Recession is a label different institutions define differently. Employment growth, the unemployment rate and wages answer three questions. Fiscal analysis starts from spending, tax and the debt that has to be refinanced, in a named currency, under named laws. This page teaches the questions. It does not answer them with an unsourced figure.

Cross-asset reading

A higher discount rate is not a universal sell signal, and a cut is not a universal buy signal. Cash, bonds, equities and currencies absorb the same policy step in different places: the income on cash, the price of a bond, the discount on profits, the interest differential in a currency pair. The market-outlook note on reading a macro path is the companion to this section.

MethodologyEditorial policyCommercial disclosureCorrections

Sources and review

Written by: WiT Markets Editorial. Writes and structures WiT Markets pages. Separates a sourced fact from a cell that is Not confirmed.

Review: Editorially reviewed. This is not a qualified specialist review and it is not a legal sign-off.

Last reviewed: . Next review due . The date is an editorial pass. It is not a live check of every third-party fee.

Regulatory and official sources

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Methodology. Editorial policy. Corrections. Report an error.

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